Recent ‘distorted’ home sale trend could be caused by Hurricane Irma, says Ten-X VP

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home sales nowcast
Graph showing sales activity from 2016 through 2017 (Auction.com)

Ten-X has released its latest Residential Real Estate Nowcast report showing an up-and-down nationwide home sale activity in October and November 2017, a few months after Hurricane Irma hit Florida.

In September, sales posted a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $5.37 million. The figure jumped the following month as October sales reported $5.48 million. Data for November remains to be determined, but a slight growth of 0.3 percent is projected as sales activity cools down. By the end of November, sales are expected to reach $5.50 million, or a SAAR between $5.32 and $5.61 million.

“Both October and November existing home sales figures have probably been distorted a bit by the hurricanes that impacted real estate transactions in Florida and Texas,” Sharga said. “At least part of the reason November sales appear to be higher is that sales activity has improved significantly across the South, which represents about 40 percent of home sales, after a temporary dip due to the storms.”

However, Sharga also said that it would be unlikely for sales to exhibit the same trend in 2018 unless inventory changes “dramatically.”

To determine and predict market trends, Ten-X combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search results weeks before a report is released. Nowcast follows the data model developed by Google chief economist Hal Varian, which incorporates current and accurate information.

More data including average home prices are included in the report. Nowcast can be viewed through Auction.com, a subsidiary of Ten-X.

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